Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock
Master the evidence-based habits of "superforecasters" to transform vague intuition into a precise, learnable skill for predicting complex global events. By cultivating a mindset of intellectual humility and probabilistic thinking, you will gain the clarity needed to navigate an uncertain world and make smarter, high-stakes decisions with confidence.
The Myth of the Expert
Exploring why traditional experts fail and how cognitive styles determine forecasting accuracy.
Foxes vs. Hedgehogs
The Brier Score Reality Check
The Good Judgment Project
The Architecture of Accuracy
How superforecasters break down complex problems and use objective data points.
The Fermi Method
The Power of Base Rates
Granular Probability
The Art of Belief Updating
Mastering the mental flexibility required to change one's mind as new data arrives.
Bayesian Thinking
Avoiding Information Hygiene Traps
Perpetual Beta
Synthesis and Perspective
Using diverse viewpoints to build a more complete picture of the future.
The Dragonfly Eye
Constructive Dissent
Scenarios and Counterfactuals
Team Dynamics in Forecasting
How collaboration can either sharpen or dull collective judgment.
The Team Effect
Defeating Groupthink
Precision Communication
Leadership and Strategy
Balancing the need for open-minded forecasting with the need for decisive action.
The Leader's Dilemma
Mission Command
Evidence-Based Culture
The Path to Mastery
Summarizing the habits of superforecasters and the future of collective intelligence.
Skill vs. Luck
The Ten Commandments
The Future of Forecasting
Start reading with AI
Interactive Socratic dialogue, level by level