对赌
[美] 安妮·杜克
本书由认知心理学专家安妮·杜克撰写，旨在帮助读者在充满不确定性的环境下做出更优决策。你将学会如何剥离运气成分，客观评估信息，通过“对赌”思维克服认知偏差，从而在关键时刻做出更理性、更具前瞻性的判断，显著提升决策质量。
Life is Poker, Not Chess
This chapter dismantles the myth of perfect information, explaining why the quality of a result does not always reflect the quality of a decision.
The Resulting Trap
Poker vs. Chess Mindset
The Power of 'I'm Not Sure'
Wanna Bet? The Anatomy of Belief
Examines how we form beliefs and how treating our convictions as 'bets' can lead to more objective reasoning.
How We Build Beliefs
The 'Wanna Bet?' Challenge
Redefining Wrong
The Learning Loop
Focuses on how to extract accurate lessons from experience by overcoming the ego's protective biases.
The Self-Serving Bias
Fielding Outcomes
Watching from the Sidelines
The Buddy System
Explains why we need others to help us see our blind spots and how to build a truth-seeking community.
The Truth-Seeking Group
Constructive Dissent
The CUDOS Framework
Adventures in Mental Time Travel
Tools for using our future and past selves to make better decisions in the present.
The 10-10-10 Rule
Backcasting
The Pre-Mortem
Decision Resilience
Maintaining a steady hand through the ups and downs of uncertainty and market volatility.
Managing the Night-Us
The Ticker Tape Trap
Building a Decision Log
Conclusion: The Infinite Game
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Interactive Socratic dialogue, level by level